Oscar Noms tomorrow!
I think I probably chose the wrong year to start my blog. For two years running, I’ve enjoyed reading blog posts discussing potential Oscar nominees and winners. Normally I try to watch all the films that have a prospect of a nomination, but this year, while I did see several potential nominess that came out earlier in the year (Crash, Cinderella Man, Good Night and Good Luck), I for the last two months I’ve had a problem with my leg that has largely kept me confined to bed (though happily able to work sitting up with a laptop). So I have missed practically all the year-end Oscar hopefuls. Since I’m almost well, I’m still hoping to see a number of them in the following month before the Oscars - including Walk the Line, Munich and Capote.
So I guess there’s no way I could make any credible predictions about who is going to be beaming a few hours from now, or deserves to — on the other hand, I sometimes think the Oscars are so much a matter of favoritism and inbred “politics” that it isn’t really necessary to have seen the films to guess who’ll be nominated. So here are a few random thoughts.
Russell Crowe - for my money, definitely deserves a nomination for Cinderella Man. I hope he’ll be nominated, but because of his recent phone-throwing shennanigans, won’t win. But Philip Seymour Hoffman has given too many critically acclaimed but awards- unrecognized performances not to be nominated — and win.
Reese Witherspoon — With her SAG Award, she’s getting some long-overdue recognition as well. Can Oscar be far behind? She’ll be nominated for sure -I can predict that without having seen her film yet. But can she win?
It will be interesting what the Academy thinks a good lead woman’s role is this year. It’s usually slim pickings for actresses.
Hang in there, cast of Crash - no real star role, so everyone’s a supporting player. The roles are spread too thin, I’m afraid, for any one of them to get recognition - though I’d be glad to be proven wrong. At least they can hug their SAG Awards.
As Janet Batchler is so fond of pointing out, the Academy loves actors who write or direct. Will this bode well for George Clooney’s Good Night and Good Luck - or will voters shy away from the controversy? And will they embrace Brokeback Mountain or shy away from it for the same reason? (Hollywood’s generally “liberal” until it becomes unpopular with audiences).
People who deserve to be nominated but probably won’t — largely because comedies, (non-dramatic) musicals and fantasy films aren’t taken seriously by the Academy:
Keira Knightly, Best Actress, Pride and Prejudice - she was the best part of one of the most joyous films of the year.
Uma Thurman, Best Supporting Actress, The Producers - she was a singing and dancing sensation and a comic delight. This was a side of her I’d never really seen before.
Georgie Henley - Best Supporting Actress, The Chronicles of Narnia. C’mon, it isn’t such a stretch - rember Tatum O’Neill and Paper Moon (she won and she was only 9), and the upset nom of 11-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes for Whale Rider? So I guess I’m entitled to dream - because the character of Lucy is the heart and soul of Lewis’ story: in her trust and her courage, Queen Lucy the Valiant is what we all ought to be - and Georgie embodied her perfectly.
Unfortunately, Chronicles, this year’s one heralded “Christian” film doesn’t stand a chance of any nominations, except for special effects. But there’s always the possibility of an upset. And of course the Oscar nominations aren’t any fun at all without upsets.
I expect to have more to say after I’ve seen a few more of the nominated film, so stay tuned. . .