Oscar Nomination Surprises?
Usually, the talk about the Oscars on the night before the nominations is over who will be nominated. This time, most of the talk is over whether the ceremony will be held at all, due to the ongoing writers’ strike, which has already reduced the glitzy Golden Globes to a sober press conference, because no stars would cross the WGA picket line. This may be a more interesting subject than this year’s crop of films. I actually found few films that I was that excited about, and there were many others I haven’t seen, so it seems ridiculous of me to make predictions. Nevertheless. . .
For Best Picture: Both No Country For Old Men and There Will be Blood seem to have a lock on two of the top slots because of all the critics’ awards they’ve received. Both, from all accounts, are exceedingly grim dramas. Will the Academy have room for an exceedingly grim musical and nominate Sweeney Todd?
Other than the top two, the race seems wide open. Other possibilities: Juno, already high in critics’ affections and moving up fast at the box office (the tiny indie comedy is now no. 4). The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Michael Clayton. Into the Wild. Maybe even Once, the little Irish musical drama that won the year’s highest critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes (98%). Falling further and further behind are other films, including American Gangster and Charlie Wilson’s War.
The biggest question about the Best Picture race though, seems to be: will Antonement win a spot? It won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, though this doesn’t mean much, since these awards aren’t highly regarded. But then Entertainment Weekly put the two attractive stars Keira Knightly and James MacAvoy, on its cover ad devoted the cover story to the film. But there is an increasing feeling it will fall out of competition, just as Dreamgirls did last year.
There is always one out of left field surprise. EW also rounded up some online commentators with their attempts to spot the upset contenders. I was delighted to read the following.
“Forget Juno. The real feel-good movie that should be nominated and win for Best Picture is Ratatouille. But since ‘toons have their own category, don’t count on any miracles here. (Pete Hammond, The envelope, LA Times – theenvelope.latimes.com).
Another writer was much more definite.
“SURPRISE! Ratatouille earns Best Picture, Best Director, Screenplay and Animated Feature nominations, and takes the lead in the Best Picture race. (Sasha Stone, awardsdaily.com).”
Of course, since I’ve already written that I think Ratatouille is a better film that Atonement, you won’t be surprised at my prediction (and hope) that Ratatouille will take Antonement’s spot in the Best Picture Race. Come on, Ratatouille even made the AFI’s top ten list of the year!
A few other predictions:
Ratatouille will get a nod for Best Original Screenplay for Brad Bird and Jan Pinkava, as will Juno for Diablo Cody.
Charlie Wilson’s War could still earn a Best Adapted Screenplay nod for Aaron Sorkin. This could be Hollywood’s nod to the rash of political dramas; most of the others didn’t do well at all at the box office in a year when everyone went to the movies to forget the grim crisis in Iraq.
Ellen Page will get a Best Actress nomination for Juno. Don’t completely discount the possibility of one or more of the rest of the excellent supporting cast (Alison Janney, J. K. Simmons, Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, even Michael Cera) joining her. You can expect a surprise (but really not so surprising) Best Actress nomination for Amy Adams in Enchanted. She certainly redefined the fairy take princess for all time in this delightful film. For Nikki Blonsky, who was so delightful in Hairspray, the question may be whether she is actually nominated for Best Supporting Actress, as newcomers (they used to call them “ingenues”) so often are, or whether she will be nominated in the lead category, as she was at the Golden Globes. For the Oscars, I think she’ll make the Supporting Actress category.
Philip Seymour Hoffman richly deserves a Best Supporting Actor nod for Charlie Wilson’s War. Complicating the situation, he may also be nominated for his lead performance in The Savages. This type of split race often means the nominee won’t win either award. It’s sad when some people are so talented they cancel themselves out! But because of all the heavy-duty competition in the Best Actor race, the supporting race may be his spot. But I also hope Peter O’Toole is nominated in this category for Ratatouille. Part of me really wants to have him win, so he can receive a “real” Oscar before he dies. Besides he was really superb in his role as the world’s most feared restaurant critic.
It will be only a few hours before we are all find out — that our predictions are all nonsense!