Oscar Predictions 2009
Yes, it’s that time again. I managed to squeeze in viewings of three more Oscar-nominated films this week, Slumdog Millionaire, The Reader and Milk, but still, this year I’ve been too busy to do much watching. I don’t know how much I can judge the nominees when I haven’t seen them all. For the most part I don’t have many overwhelming favorites.
This time I’ve seen four of the five Best-Picture nominees (missing is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).
My all-over favorite film in most respects is WALL-E. (I’d also vote its teaser as one of the coolest trailers of all time). But of course, as last year with Ratatouille, it’s not nominated for Best Picture.
Well, on to the actual the Best Picture nominees. Frost/Nixon was tremendously absorbing and enjoyable and well-directed by Ron Howard, and of course, well-written, by Peter Morgan, with great performances by Frank Langella and Michael Sheen. It’s even downright suspenseful, though most people know the outcome already. Perhaps it’s just a little obvious in what it says, and has to my mind, a slightly weak ending. (I’m hoping to write more about this). The Reader was hard-hitting in places, but too solemn and self-conscious to bring the desired catharsis to the viewer. What really carried it were the performances, especially Kate Winslet’s. Milk was a well-made biopic with a magnetic performance by Sean Penn and a social message that liberal Hollywood loves. But then look what happened with Brokeback Mountain. . . But Slumdog Millionaire was so incredibly inventive and original in its filming of a heartfelt and crowd-pleasing story that voters would be unable to resist it. I would join all the predictors saying Slumdog will most likely take the top prize. And probably deservedly so.
Best Actress: Meryl was great, but this is undoubtedly Kate Winslet’s year. She is probably the actress with the most nominations who has never won. The film she’s in, The Reader, basically wouldn’t work without her. She portrays a mystery woman whose motivations are never clear, and whose actions are often anything but sympathetic, and you can’t take your eyes from her when she’s onscreen. I wasn’t much convinced by Angelina Jolie in Changeling, and her role was rather one-note.
Best Actor: A real tough one. Frank Langella deserves all the praise in the world for his uncanny portrayal of Richard Nixon’s confessional and self-justification all in one — especially since he manages to make you forget he doesn’t really sound or look like Nixon. On the other hand, he’s one of many Nixon portrayals onscreen. Sean Penn could easily get the award for the way he portrays both a specific personality and the passion that makes him tick. His (fittingly) flamboyant portrayal of Harvey Milk is at the opposite end of the spectrum from Richard Jenkins’ work in The Visitor — a small quiet film that shouldn’t be missed. Though his quietly recessive character, a widowed professor, seems almost completely inexpressive, his gradual emotional awakening is beautifully done. But for the Academy his work probably isn’t “big” enough. I haven’t seen Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. He has a lot of support for his comeback story in Hollywood. This one’s too tough to call - but I’ll say Penn. It’s a good way to reward a film that undoubtedly won’t take top prize, and a most deserving performance. I’d be happy to see any of them win. (I missed his performance, but evidently Brad Pitt doesn’t stand much of a chance).
Best Supporting Actor: There’s no question that Heath Ledger will take it, but I can’t say much about him since I haven’t seen The Dark Knight, believe or not, though I’m looking forward to it on video. My favorite of those I’ve seen is Philip Seymour Hoffman.
Best supporting actress: This is one where I haven’t seen too many. I think from the buzz that it will be Viola Davis in Doubt.
Best original screenplay - WALL-E - I don’t even have to see the others — however unfair that is. (The only other nominated film in this category I’ve actually seen is Milk).
Best adapted screenplay — Slumdog Millionaire will win, since I think inventiveness and originality will be the key.
Best Director: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire. He’s a real virtuoso at juggling emotions and complicated story threads as well. One curious fact this year: the nominees for Best Director and Best Picture completely match up for once. Usually some Best Picture nominee’s director is left out.
Janet Batchler’s predictions match up somewhat with mine.
If I get a chance I’ll live blog the Oscars tomorrow night — though once again I have to work on translations. I’ll try to write a comment or two at any rate.
See you then!
